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Joint probability models for environmental parameters of offshore wind turbines

Titel: Joint probability models for environmental parameters of offshore wind turbines
Typ:
  • Studienarbeit
Betreuer:
Status: offen

Hintergrund

The assessment of environmental design conditions is an important step for the design of offshore wind turbine systems, as the resulting description of occurrence probability of environmental parameters presents the input for extreme and fatigue load calculations. This is usually done by determining a so called joint probability model to describe design driving environmental parameters at the site (e.g. wind speed, turbulence intensity, wave height and wave period).
In the field of research, various models are proposed and applied with varying depth of detail linked to the site conditions and considered system (wind turbine and sub structure). Models including a continuous description of probabilities of exceedance are found for the determination of extreme environmental conditions.

Problemstellung

In this work, a general model will be developed in order to provide complete, detailed and continuous information of the occurrence probability of specific environmental events for fatigue load assessment of floating offshore wind turbines. This requires an extensive investigation of existing models for both fatigue and extreme load calculations in order to decide for the best suited model. Early design stages do not include at-site investigation of environmental parameters which limits the available data base, which is why different models might be suitable at different stages of the design. The essential steps of the robust MATLAB tool that will be developed as part of this work will be importing time series data, determining optimal probability fits and continuous description of conditional probabilities of linked variables. As some of the environmental parameters (e.g. wind direction) are of circular nature, the inclusion of circular statistic analysis is also planned. Finally, the model will be applied to three different sites that have been investigated before for verification and in order to present the strengths of the new model. Previous work at SWE can be used as a base for the model and tool and be built upon as part of this work. A publication of the results of the work is planned.

Aufgabe

Suggested Approach:

  • Literature study on joint probability models of offshore environments, get accustomed to existing MATLAB routines
  • Conception of work
  • Development of new model and MATLAB tool
  • Application of model to three selected offshore sites
  • Conclusion of results and presentation

Anforderung

The ideal candidate works independently and has a high interest in theoretical work (data analysis, probabilistics) with application to environmental site assessment. Experience with Matlab and statistics are an asset.

Duration: ca. 4 Months (Studienarbeit)
Start: March 2016
Language: German or English

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